[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"skill-a3f71cd5-ef47-40b7-886c-571fd5ddcb49":3,"$fXSwZox0L1SYjTmiVCa1e_h5fitiBu26YIZFJAvnL4nU":43},{"id":4,"title":5,"description":6,"categoryId":7,"moduleId":8,"tags":9,"prompt":10,"icon":11,"source":12,"sourceUrl":13,"authorId":14,"authorName":15,"isPublic":16,"stars":17,"runs":18,"createdAt":19,"updatedAt":19,"module":20,"category":27,"packages":34},"a3f71cd5-ef47-40b7-886c-571fd5ddcb49","progressive-estimation","估算AI辅助和混合人+代理开发工作，采用基于研究的PERT统计和校准反馈循环","cat_life_career","mod_other","sickn33,other","---\nname: progressive-estimation\ndescription: \"Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops\"\ncategory: project-management\nrisk: safe\nsource: community\ndate_added: \"2026-03-10\"\nauthor: Enreign\ntags:\n  - estimation\n  - project-management\n  - pert\n  - sprint-planning\n  - ai-agents\ntools:\n  - claude\n---\n\n# Progressive Estimation\n\nEstimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work using research-backed formulas with PERT statistics, confidence bands, and calibration feedback loops.\n\n## Overview\n\nProgressive Estimation adapts to your team's working mode — human-only, hybrid, or agent-first — applying the right velocity model and multipliers for each. It produces statistical estimates rather than gut feelings.\n\n## When to Use This Skill\n\n- Estimating development tasks where AI agents handle part of the work\n- Sprint planning with hybrid human+agent teams\n- Batch sizing a backlog (handles 5 or 500 issues)\n- Staffing and capacity planning with agent multipliers\n- Release date forecasting with confidence intervals\n\n## How It Works\n\n1. **Mode Detection** — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first\n2. **Task Classification** — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk\n3. **Formula Application** — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies\n4. **PERT Calculation** — Produces expected values using three-point estimation\n5. **Confidence Bands** — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals\n6. **Output Formatting** — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab\n7. **Calibration** — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates\n\n## Examples\n\n**Single task:**\n> \"Estimate building a REST API with authentication using Claude Code\"\n\n**Batch mode:**\n> \"Estimate these 12 JIRA tickets for our next sprint\"\n\n**With context:**\n> \"We have 3 developers using AI agents for ~60% of implementation. Estimate this feature.\"\n\n## Best Practices\n\n- Start with a single task to calibrate before moving to batch mode\n- Feed back actual completion times to improve the calibration system\n- Use \"instant mode\" for quick T-shirt sizing without full PERT analysis\n- Be explicit about team composition and agent usage percentage\n\n## Common Pitfalls\n\n- **Problem:** Overconfident estimates\n  **Solution:** Use P75 or P90 for commitments, not P50\n\n- **Problem:** Missing context\n  **Solution:** The skill asks clarifying questions — provide team size and agent usage\n\n- **Problem:** Stale calibration\n  **Solution:** Re-calibrate when team composition or tooling changes significantly\n\n## Related Skills\n\n- `@sprint-planning` - Sprint planning and backlog management\n- `@project-management` - General project management workflows\n- `@capacity-planning` - Team velocity and capacity planning\n\n## Additional Resources\n\n- [Source Repository](https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FEnreign\u002Fprogressive-estimation)\n- [Installation Guide](https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FEnreign\u002Fprogressive-estimation\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002FINSTALLATION.md)\n- [Research References](https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FEnreign\u002Fprogressive-estimation\u002Ftree\u002Fmain\u002Freferences)\n\n## Limitations\n- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.\n- Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.\n- Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.\n","","imported","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Fsickn33\u002Fantigravity-awesome-skills","user_system_seed","SkillOPIC",true,106,1951,"2026-05-16 13:35:19",{"id":8,"name":21,"slug":22,"icon":23,"description":24,"sort":25,"createdAt":26},"其他","other","mdi-page-next-outline","其他类型Skill",5,"2026-05-16 12:53:40",{"id":7,"name":28,"slug":29,"icon":30,"description":31,"moduleId":8,"sort":32,"skillCount":33,"createdAt":26},"职场发展","career","mdi-briefcase-outline","面试准备、简历优化、职业规划",4,575,[35],{"id":36,"skillId":4,"version":37,"fileName":38,"fileSize":39,"filePath":40,"fileHash":41,"manifest":42,"createdAt":19},"9888bc08-9bf7-4a0b-8684-6ae07b35ea67","1.0.0","progressive-estimation.zip",1715,"uploads\u002Fskills\u002Fa3f71cd5-ef47-40b7-886c-571fd5ddcb49\u002Fprogressive-estimation.zip","d4e6a8f2101ade6878c1b51c895d3c0fbeb6a35342310219934e3fb81abf298e","[{\"path\":\"SKILL.md\",\"isDirectory\":false,\"size\":3473}]",{"code":44,"message":45,"data":46},200,"success",{"items":47,"stats":48,"page":51},[],{"averageRating":49,"totalRatings":49,"ratingCounts":50},0,[49,49,49,49,49],{"limit":52,"offset":49,"hasMore":53,"nextOffset":52,"ratedOnly":16},15,false]